In the FCS Huddle: Major upsets don't make the other games minor
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/05/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are no ifs, ands or buts about it,
when a Football Championship Subdivision team upsets a major-conference team,
it deserves to be in the spotlight as much as any other team across the
nation.
Think a No. 14 team upsetting a three seed in the early rounds of March
Madness. That always gets your attention when your bracket starts to fall
apart.
Jacksonville State? Yes, the Gamecocks were all over any highlight show that
you might have watched this weekend following their thrilling, 49-48, double-
overtime rally past Ole Miss and a stunned Houston Nutt, who won the Eddie
Robinson Award as the FCS coach of the year back at Murray State in 1995.
Murray State, of course, now plays in the same Ohio Valley Conference as
Jacksonville State.
North Dakota State? Well, the Bison's 6-3 win at Kansas was the polar opposite
of Jacksonville State's on the scoreboard, but it left an FBS coach as equally
stunned, first-year Jayhawks skipper Turner Gill. Maybe his squad should have
taken even a closer look at North Dakota State than they did beforehand
because since the Bison moved to the FCS in 2006 they are an impressive
4-3 against Football Bowl Subdivision teams, beating Minnesota, Ball State,
Central Michigan, and, now, Kansas (Turner, this certainly isn't the
University of Buffalo anymore).
The reality, though, is that FCS teams aren't supposed to beat FBS teams. It's
tougher to do in football than in most other collegiate sports.
So the 2-38 record that FCS teams posted against the big boys this weekend can
be filed away with the guaranteed paychecks that come with playing these
games.
There will be plenty more FCS-FBS matchups next weekend before the two
divisions basically go their own ways.
What shouldn't be lost amid the deserved hoopla for Jacksonville State and
North Dakota State is that plenty of FCS-versus-FCS games started to shape the
season.
William & Mary, the No. 4 team in the country and an FCS semifinalist last
season, has already lost a conference game. Now that should get your
attention.
Of course, don't be overly surprised by the result because in CAA Football -
the FCS' dominant conference - there is a March Madness quality in the way its
teams routinely knock each other off.
Massachusetts pulled the upset of the Tribe, 27-23 as Jonathan Hernandez
totaled 201 yards of total offense (132 rushing and 69 receiving) and rushed
for a touchdown, and Northeastern transfer John Griffin rushed for two
touchdowns, including a 5-yarder with 3:23 left to erase the Minutemen's 23-21
deficit. Linebacker Tyler Holmes' interception with 2:05 left then clinched
the upset.
"It's just a testament to the team, these guys and who they are and where they
have been through the winter, through the spring, the summer and the fall,"
Minutemen coach Kevin Morris said. "We had a long, hot preseason and every
time I asked them to get something done, they got it done. Certainly today
that character came out and they responded with tremendous form."
"I felt in a lot of respects we played very well," said William & Mary coach
Jimmye Laycock, who held out star linebacker Jake Trantin, "but we did not do
what we needed to do defensively in a lot of situations, as far as third- and
fourth-down conversions. We let them convert."
The CAA's other eye-opening score in Week 1 was Maine's 3-0 loss to Albany of
the Northeast Conference. Maine came into the season believing a healthier
squad will turn around last year's 5-6 record, but the shutout loss might have
been an ominous sign. The visiting Great Danes made Herb Glass' 21-yard field
goal midway through the first quarter stand up.
Speaking of standing up, the crowd was on its feet in Springfield, Mo., as
Missouri State roared past Eastern Kentucky, 31-9, in one of the better wins
for fifth-year coach Terry Allen, and one seemingly worthy of getting the
Bears into The Sportsbook Betting Lines/Fathead.com FCS Top 25. Junior Chris Douglas'
86-yard touchdown run in the second quarter highlighted the win, and
quarterback Cody Kirby rushed for a pair of TDs.
Among the impressive road wins, Jacksonville tripped Old Dominion, 35-25,
behind its offensive stars, quarterback Josh McGregor (24 of 34 for 311 yards
and three touchdowns), running back Rudell Small (118 rushing yards and two
TDs) and wide receiver Josh Philpart (115 receiving yards and two TDs). Also,
Lehigh went to Des Moines, Iowa, and left Drake a 28-14 winner behind Jay
Campbell's three rushing touchdowns. The Mountain Hawks had not boarded a
plane for a game since going to Furman for an NCAA quarterfinal in 2001.
COULD THIS WEEK'S NO. 1 BE 0-1?
It will be interesting to see where Villanova is ranked on Monday. It's
possible the defending FCS champion could remain No. 1 despite a 31-24 loss to
Temple on Friday. The Wildcats jump-started their 14-1 campaign a year ago by
edging Temple, but this year's game was a toss-up, with a slight edge to the
Owls from the FBS.
"I told the guys I have never been more proud of a Villanova team," head coach
Andy Talley said after the loss. "We can go far as a team this year and I am
happy and excited about that."
Second-ranked Montana, which has lost in the last two FCS championship games,
including 23-21 to Villanova last year, drilled Western State, 73-2, would
stand to surpass Villanova if there is a change atop the poll. Third-ranked
Appalachian State barely got past Chattanooga, 42-41; fourth-ranked William &
Mary lost to UMass, 27-23; and fifth-ranked Southern Illinois brought out the
medical examiner in a 70-7 win over Quincy.
MANY HAPPY RETURNS
Montana expected to drill Western State and did with nine touchdown
receptions. Oops, make that a combined five for Griz quarterbacks Andrew Selle
and Justin Roper, and four interceptions that the defense returned for
touchdowns, tying an NCAA single-game record.
Jordan Tripp (22 yards), Erik Stoll (34) and Trumaine Johnson (18) scored on
short returns in the first quarter, then Sean Murray had the shortest one of
all, 14 yards in the fourth quarter.
"We didn't have a lot of sustained drives, and that was disappointing. But
thanks to the return team, we didn't need to," Montana coach Robin Pflugrad
said after winning his first game in Missoula.
Overall, the Griz defense allowed only 73 yards on 51 plays.
COACHING DEBUTS
Pflugrad was one of the small handful of winners among FCS coaches who made
their debuts this weekend. The new coaches were 5-11 heading into Stump
Mitchell's debut for Southern on Sunday against Delaware State.
Besides Pflugrad, the winners were Bethune-Cookman's Brian Jenkins (70-10 over
Edward Waters) Georgia Southern's Jeff Monken (48-3 over Savannah State and
debuting coach Julius Dixon), Tennessee State's Rod Reed (27-14 over Alabama
A&M) and Western Illinois' Mark Hendrickson (45-0 over Valparaiso and debuting
coach Dale Carlsson).
PRESLEY DELIVERS, BUT WHEW ...
Few players in the FCS entered the season under the microscope as much as
Appalachian State quarterback DeAndre Presley, who has replaced two-time
Walter Payton Award winner Armanti Edwards.
App State played it a little too close for comfort, but Presley got the
thumb's up by rallying the Mountaineers from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit
to a 42-41 win at Chattanooga.
Presley, a redshirt junior, completed 22-of-29 passes for 340 yards and two
touchdowns, rushed for 25 yards and two other touchdowns, and scored a TD on a
"reception" that was the oddest play of the game.
With the game tied 35-35 in the fourth quarter, Chattanooga jumped offsides on
3rd-and-1 from the Mocs' 29 yard line, giving Presley and the Mountaineers a
free play. Presley threw a quick pass to wide receiver Matt Cline, who was
drilled by defender Chris Lewis-Harris and fumbled the ball. Presley picked up
the loose ball and followed blocked into the end zone for the go-ahead
touchdown from 33 yards out.
Statistically, Cline collected the reception and Presley the 33 receiving
yards.
THIS, THAT AND THE OTHER
College football is old hat to Georgia State coach Bill Curry, but his new
program won its first-ever game, 41-7 over NAIA program Shorter before an
announced crowd of 30,237 in the Georgia Dome. QB Drew Little threw for two
touchdowns. "I've never been more proud of a group of young men than I am of
this group," said Curry, the former head coach at Georgia Tech, Alabama and
Kentucky ... The most scintillating performance in a losing cause belonged to
Eastern Washington junior Taiwan Jones, who collected a career-high 322 all-
purpose yards on just 18 touches in the Eagles' 49-24 loss at Nevada. The All-
America rushed 12 times for 145 yards, caught two passes for 92 yards and
returned four kickoffs for 85 yards. He turned a Bo Levi Mitchell pass into an
82-yard catch-and- run for EWU's first touchdown of the season ... True
freshman running back Zach Bauman was lost in the shadow of All-America
quarterback Michael Herrick during the preseason, but in a 48-0 win over
Western New Mexico he announced his arrival by rushing for 167 yards and four
touchdowns ... Liberty had three receivers surpass 100 yards in a 52-7 win
over St. Francis (Pa.): Chris Summers (129), B.J. Hayes (100) and Pat Kelly
(115). Quarterbacks Mike Brown and Tyler Brennan combined for 452 yards and
six touchdowns ... Senior linebacker Brandon Wiggins of Elon collected 19
tackles against Duke and senior linebacker Jeffrey Williams of Gardner-Webb
had 18 against Brevard .. Speaking of defensive dominance, The Citadel was in
on seven sacks in a 56-14 win over Chowan. Erik Clanton collected two solo
sacks and assisted on two more, while fellow defensive lineman Derek Douglas
had two solo sacks ... Led by North Dakota State's win at Kansas, Missouri
Valley Football Conference teams won six of seven games.
SNEAK PEEK
The key FCS game next weekend is No. 9 South Dakota State's trip across the
country to No. 16 Delaware. Coach John Stiegelmeier's Jackrabbits were one of
only three Top 25 teams not to open their season this weekend (No. 14 Northern
Iowa and No. 23 Penn were the other two). Delaware and All-America quarterback
Pat Devlin tuned up by coasting past Division II West Chester, 31-0.
Among FCS-FBS matchups, Southern Illinois will travel to Illinois, New
Hampshire visits Pittsburgh, James Madison will go to Virginia Tech and
Montana State will visit Washington State.
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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